We looked at the Peltzman Effect below – the suggestion that reduced danger will be offset by increased risk taking. Off course, it is also evident that this will hold in the reverse – increased danger will result in reduced risk taking.
Thus we can hypothesise that when driving is more dangerous, drivers will take fewer risks and there will be fewer road fatalities. One of the key determinants of road safety is weather. We can expect people to take more risks in dry, sunny conditions than in cold, icy conditions. Although icy roads are more dangerous it is likely that more people will die if the roads are dry.
Can we test this hypothesis.
January 2010 provides a natural experiment for us to use when Ireland was gripped by a prolonged cold snap. One report here.
To test our hypothesis we need two pieces of data:
- Number of collisions
- Number of deaths
The Peltzman Effect would suggest that the dangerous driving conditions in January would cause drivers to take more care thus reducing the number of collisions. The impact on the number of deaths is not as clear cut. On one hand the reduction in collisions will reduce the number of deaths, but on the other hand the added danger will increase the probability of any collision being fatal. Theory cannot tell us which effect will be greater.
Can anyone provide the data?
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